The Escape to Kazakhstan: Normalization Without Depth and an Escape from Failure and Isolation

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Afrasianet - Sharhabil Al-Gharib - The reality that  Israel is experiencing at this stage is that it is seeking to export the image of an internationally accepted state, but the reality is quite different, as it has been living in the deepest stages of political isolation for decades.


In a striking and surprising political scene, while the reverberations of the Israeli war on Gaza and the high humanitarian and political cost it left behind that have affected Israel's international image and caused a major rift in its relations with many Arab and international countries, Kazakhstan recently announced the establishment of official diplomatic relations with Israel, in a move that surprised all political circles to join the normalization train that began in 2020 during the first term of US President Donald Trump. 


Such a step on the face of it seems to reflect a new progress in the path of Israeli openness and expansion of the normalization project, but in essence, it reflects a deeper crisis than the normalization project and the attempts to expand it in an Arab and Islamic environment that has become more cautious and rejects this political path. 


The timing of the announcement is neither innocent nor fleeting, and it comes at a critical political moment that Israel is going through as it faces a significant decline in its international image due to the genocidal war and ethnic cleansing it committed in Gaza and the escalation of Western criticism of everything it has done against Palestinian civilians.


In the hands of these data, Israel is looking for any diplomatic achievement that repairs its fractured and shattered image, even if the step comes from a country that is geographically distant from the Arab region, which has no weight in the equation of the conflict or even in the political balances, such a step confirms that "Tel Aviv" is looking for propaganda in which its image shines and flee even to countries that are geographically distant, after closing the doors of the Arab and Islamic neighboring countries to it, and this indicates that Israel is living in a predicament Politically, it is real in winning over neighboring countries and normalizing with them.


Reading the Kazakh declaration on the subject of normalization cannot be read in isolation from the timing, "Israel" is going through one of its worst stages politically and diplomatically after the genocide war in Gaza, as it has faced and is facing increasing isolation due to the genocide and ethnic cleansing it committed in Gaza, and it is also facing a state of internal tension that threatens the cohesion of its government, and a decline in its image in front of the global and Western public opinion, and in the midst of this and in direct coordination with the administration of President Trump "Israel" seems to be looking for any political achievement If it is symbolic, it is presented as proof that its regional political project is still alive and well, and that despite everything that happened during the two years of the war, it is able to win new alliances, even if they are far from the environment and the arena of confrontation.


In this equation, the role of the United States, the main supporter of reviving the path of normalization that it sponsored to consolidate its influence in the Middle East and Central Asia, especially after the crack and shake of the confidence of its allies in its regional policies, can never be overlooked. 


Digging deeper into the goals of Kazakh normalization, it did not come as an expression of explicit political bias or according to political calculations, or within the equation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but rather in official Kazakhstan it is seen as a step of economic interests in the first place, as the oil- and gas-rich country is looking for partners in the fields of modern technology and energy, and believes that such a step could open new doors for it in Western markets. 


Whatever the motives and goals of Kazakhstan behind this move with Israel, it reveals the most prominent significance of the event itself, which lies in Israel's inability to penetrate its Arab surroundings so far, and it is the one that bet on the start of the first round of normalization that it will open the way and pave the way for a series of steps by Arab and Islamic countries, and today found itself forced to head towards Central Asia, to compensate for the failure to attract larger and more influential Arab capitals in the political equation. 


The recent war on Gaza has reshaped the mood and public opinion in the Arab and Muslim worlds, and has largely aborted any attempts to market the normalization project as a natural peace path after all  the crimes against humanity committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip.


The Arab peoples in the region have come to see relations with Israel as a political cover for aggression and a free reward for the Israeli occupation, which continues its violations without accountability, and with this awareness and the uprisings witnessed in Arab and Western capitals, the appetite of the official regimes for official engagement in the path of normalization has declined, and progress in it has become more of a burden than a political gain.


Israel's move to normalize with Kazakhstan as a politically and geographically distant country comes as a tacit acknowledgment that the regional expansion project has come to an end, one might say, "Is this how things are described in this way, I say yes because the normalization project was in its beginnings, it was presented as a strategic shift in the structure and composition of the Middle East region, but after the war on Gaza and everything that happened there, it turned into mere symbolic agreements that Israel uses for political and media purposes without any real impact on the balance of power and the equations of conflict and the attitudes of the peoples.


There is a question that arises after the Israeli bragging about this step and the media exaggeration of it, what happens after Kazakhstan? And what exactly does Israel seek?


I believe that work will continue at this pace in coordination and cooperation with the US administration, by seeking to weave normalization agreements with countries in Central Asia and perhaps Africa, so that it will be easier to pass the agreements away from the pressure of Arab public opinion that rejects this particular path, but in general, these relations will remain limited in impact and effectiveness, mainly because they lack political depth and are based on temporary interests rather than real strategic alliances.  


The bitter truth that Israel is experiencing at this stage is that no matter how long it continues in this approach, it will deepen its image as an isolated state, seeking any way out that will ease the burden of its isolation and political blockade, because normalization with Kazakhstan will not change its reality in the region and will not return it to the hearts of the peoples who witnessed its bloodshed and brutality in the Gaza Strip.


Kazakhstan's announcement of its intention to normalize with Israel is not considered a strategic victory as much as it is an indication of the exhaustion of expansion options with its surroundings, nor can it be considered a political achievement as much as it is a normalization without political depth and without geographical extension, which is a Trumpian prescription to beautify the scene and an attempt to revive the path of normalization after the imposition of Trump's plan to stop the war on Gaza, at a time when Israel's political and moral crises are unfolding in front of the whole world.


The reality that Israel is experiencing at this stage is that it seeks to export the image of an internationally accepted state, but the reality is quite different: it is living in the deepest stages of political isolation for decades, and President Trump's administration is well aware of this.


Lest we not be surprised again, if a new declaration of a non-Kazakhstan normalization process comes from a distant country, it is only clear evidence of the failure of normalization in the heart of the region.