Afrasianet - India is facing a difficult balancing test in its relations between the United States, which it still depends on commercially and defensely, and Russia, with which it has close trade ties.
When U.S. President Donald Trump visited India in 2020, he called Prime Minister Narendra Modi his "loyal friend." Trump reiterated his call a "great friend" during their meeting at the White House in February. The Indian leader has repeatedly indicated that he has a close friendship with President Trump.
Because of this good relationship between the two leaders, New Delhi hoped for Trump's return to the White House, as it believed that it could survive the tariffs he threatened to impose on friendly and hostile countries. However, the friendship did not succeed in saving India from the clutches of US tariffs, on the contrary, Trump launched a sharp attack on New Delhi, and relations between the two countries reached their lowest level in decades.
Trump imposed tariffs of 25 percent on Indian goods, and later imposed an additional 25 percent tariffs on them for imports of Russian oil, bringing the total tariffs to 50 percent. Trump's actions surprised India, whose prime minister vowed to protect the interests of farmers after doubling tariffs on Indian goods.
New Delhi was one of the first countries to hold trade talks with the United States to reach a trade deal. Modi visited the White House and met with President Trump, and the atmosphere was positive, as it was agreed to, among other things, more than double the volume of bilateral trade to reach $500 billion by 2030, and close the $47 billion commodity trade gap in favor of India, with the latter pledging to buy up to $25 billion in energy and boosting its defense imports.
After several rounds of trade negotiations, Indian officials were confident of reaching a trade deal with the United States, and indicated to Indian media that a 15% tariff cap could be set on the lines of South Korea and Japan.
As part of trade negotiations with the United States, India has offered to eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial goods, increase its purchases of U.S. defense and energy, and offer to cut taxes on automobiles, despite pressure from domestic lobbyists in the auto sector not to do so. But New Delhi has hardened its stance on agriculture and dairy products, two areas that are highly sensitive to the Modi government, where farmers make up more than half of the country's population, so imports of U.S. agricultural products would hurt For farmers, cultural factors play a role: American dairy products contain animal fats, while India relies heavily on a plant-based diet.
On the other hand, geopolitical factors have played a role in Trump's toughening of his rhetoric towards India and the imposition of tariffs on it. One of these factors is the divergent perceptions of how the recent engagement between India and Pakistan will end. Trump has repeatedly stated that he brokered a ceasefire, while India has denied this and has indicated that Trump had no role in achieving a truce between the two countries, which angered Trump. Pakistan nominated him for the Nobel Prize.
What angered India was the rapprochement between Washington and Islamabad, and Trump's provocation to India through this rapprochement, and his statement that later India could import oil from Pakistan after the announcement of an agreement between the two countries for the United States to explore Pakistan's mineral and oil reserves, as well as the signing of a trade agreement between the two countries.
Trump is trying to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop his war on Ukraine by forcing countries to stop importing Russian oil. Given that China, which is the largest importer of Russian oil,
The US president is trying to avoid angering China by imposing tariffs on it because of Russian oil, knowing that he recently stated that it is possible to impose tariffs on it because of its importation of Russian oil, but this step may strain relations between the two countries, so Trump preferred to put pressure on India instead of China, and imposed tariffs on it because of Russian oil in an attempt to distance India from Russia, with which it has great defense and trade relations.
In defiance of U.S. pressure, India has stated that it will not stop importing Russian oil, and India's National Security Advisor visited Russia for talks on cooperation in the field of defense industries that may include discussions on the possibility of purchasing more S-400 missile systems , establishing industrial infrastructure in India, and exploring options for the purchase of Russian SU-57 fighter jets.During his meeting with President Modi, Trump said that he could sell them to India.
Amid the lack of trust in the United States and the pressure it is exerting on India, New Delhi has been working to increase its trade cooperation with many countries around the world through bilateral agreements such as the one it signed with Britain, or the one with the European Union, which is still under discussion. India is also seeking to stabilize its relations with China, with President Modi planning to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Summit at the end of this month in Beijing, his first visit in seven years After the confrontation between the two countries in 2020 in the Galwan Valley.
There is no doubt that Trump's tariffs will harm the Indian economy, and President Modi's government today is in a predicament, as it does not want to appear as weak, nor for Modi, who enjoys a global position, to appear as weak as well, especially in light of the criticism directed at him from the internal opposition over the tariffs.
If India ignores Trump's threats and continues to buy Russian oil, as the 25% tariff will be implemented, the damage to the Indian economy will be significant. According to the Global Trade Research Initiative, an Indian research group, high tariffs could cut India's exports to the United States, worth more than $86 billion, in half. India's suspension of buying Russian oil would also raise commodity prices for consumers and domestic manufacturing, and would be detrimental to Modi's policy.
In another context, imposing tariffs on India will keep companies away from opening offices in India, especially now that many of them are seeking to relocate their branches from China to India.
For example, Apple announced in April that all iPhones for sale in the United States would be assembled in India. While electronics are still duty-free, a country with a 50% tariff on them does not attract companies. Also worrisome is Trump's intention to impose tariffs on medicines and semiconductors, which could be a painful blow to India.
India has resisted U.S. pressure to open its markets in a way that could harm its domestic industries and smallholder farmers, however, New Delhi is not seeking confrontation with Washington, but rather negotiating and is still keeping calm. Trade talks between the two countries are ongoing. The tariffs on Russian oil have not yet come into effect, meaning more time for consultation between New Delhi and Washington or an agreement could be reached between Trump and Putin, at which point Trump would cancel tariffs on India because of Russia.
India and America are likely to come to a formula that satisfies them after concessions from both sides. India is very important to the United States in order to compete with China, and the India-Russian-Chinese rapprochement worries Washington, which sees it as an end to its global hegemony and therefore not in its interest to antagonize New Delhi. India, for its part, will not stand up to the United States while other countries sign agreements with it, especially China.
If the agreement is reached, it will not restore India-US relations as it was before, as New Delhi has lost confidence in the United States, as there is great disappointment in India with Trump.
In a sign that Trump will continue his tariff pressure on trading partners, the US president signed an executive order (August 6) setting the new tax increase on Indian imports at 25%, which will be implemented within 21 days of his date.
Under the decision, the total tariff on India will be 50% on specific goods, showing:
Using tariffs to pressure New Delhi after the faltering deal, to amend trade terms (the US merchandise trade deficit with India reached $45.8 billion in 2024).
Trump used his trade with India to support a deal with Russia (he reduced the 50-day deadline for Russia to reach an agreement on ending the crisis to expire on August 8, after threatening to impose sanctions on countries that continue to buy Russian energy).
In light of the tariff escalation, India is likely to seek to balance its relationship between Washington and Moscow to avoid further pressure on its trade, especially with growing concerns about expanding tariffs to include medicines (America's imports of Indian medicines amounted to about $10.5 billion between 2024-2025).
In any case, India, which seeks its presence among the major countries that seek to achieve multipolarity, will not be able to achieve this endeavor if it gives in to American threats, which is likely.